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Employment gains, a rebound in exports and an increase in taxable sales are cited as reasons for optimism in Wells Fargo Securities’ Florida economic outlook for July.

“After more than two years of dark clouds across much of the Sunshine state, a few rays of sunlight are finally beginning to break though,” said the report, authored by senior economist Mark Vitner and economic analyst Yasmine Kamaruddin.

Nonfarm employment has risen during three of the past four months, producing a net gain of 78,000 jobs since bottoming in January of this year, the report said. Still, virtually every part of the state was hard hit by job losses, including Tampa, where employment declined by 110,200 jobs.

Florida’s manufacturers are getting a lift from a rebound in exports, and taxable sales rose solidly during the first part of 2010, the report said.

Tourism spending also has improved and hotel occupancy rates are up from a year ago, but the latest data does not incorporate much impact from the Gulf oil spill, the report said .

The biggest cloud hanging over Florida is the huge oversupply of housing constructed during the previous decade, Wells Fargo said. Florida leads the nation in foreclosures and about one in five homes with a mortgage is either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure.

A big risk that is hard to quantify is growth and an economic base historically built around a continuous inflow of retirees, tourists and working-age adults seeking a lower cost of living and a better lifestyle.

“The fundamental growth model that has served Florida so well since the 1950s is broken,” the report said.

The best strategy for the state is to boost the presence of industries such as biotechnology, medical devices, aerospace, international trade and finance, simulation, alternative energy, and film, television and new media, the report said.

Read the full report here.

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