European confidence in the economic outlook fell to the lowest in more than two years and German factory orders plunged as the euro area
Investors threw cold water on the New Year’s rally, with U.S. stocks set for a modest pullback at Wednesday’s open.
Dow Jones industrial average () and S&P 500 () futures were down 0.3%, while Nasdaq () futures were flat. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Jitters surrounding Europe’s debt crisis have resurfaced, leaving investors on edge. Uncertainty about Greece, along with reports that Spain might seek rescue funding, weighed on sentiment.
A spokeswoman for the Spanish government told CNN the reports were "a complete lie" and "radically false," and separately Greek officials said Tuesday that progress had been made.
"We’re still watching Europe simmering now. We have another summit coming up and the problems are all still there," said Scott Brown, chief economist for Raymond James.
Europe: Still a huge pain for investors
European Union leaders hold their first summit of 2012 on Jan. 30. Political leaders hashed out a fiscal agreement in early December, but investors remain skeptical about how effective it will be.
Stocks rallied Tuesday following strong manufacturing reports from China, India and the United States.
Bank stocks — one of last year’s worst-performing sectors — led the Dow higher in the prior session. Bank of America (, Fortune 500), Citigroup (, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan (, Fortune 500) all posted strong gains.
World markets: European stocks fell in midday trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 () lost 0.1%, while the DAX () in Germany shed 0.8% and France’s CAC 40 () slid 0.7%.
Asian markets finished mixed. The Nikkei () gained 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite () fell 1.4% and the Hang Seng () lost 0.8%.
Economy: The Census Bureau will release data on factory orders for the month of November before the opening bell business cards. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expect orders to have risen 2.1% in November, after dropping by 0.4% in October.
In the afternoon, the Commerce Department will release data on auto and truck sales for December. Auto sales stood at a 4.36 million annual rate in November, while truck sales were at a 5.98 million rate.
Companies: Before the opening bell, Yahoo (, Fortune 500) shares dropped 1.6% on reports that the search engine will name eBay’s (, Fortune 500) PayPal President Scott Thompson as its new CEO. Shares of eBay fell 1.1%.
Caterpillar (, Fortune 500) shares fell 1% in premarket trading, after the construction equipment manufacturer announced it will expand its research and development center in Wuxi, China.
Dunkin’ Brands () shares climbed 1.5% ahead of the bell, after the company announced it plans to double the number of its Dunkin’ Donuts restaurants in the United States in the next 20 years. The chain currently operates about 7,000 restaurants nationwide.
Cabot Oil & Gas () announced a two-for-one stock split, after its stock rallied 105% over the last year. The company also plans to increase its quarterly dividend 33%. Shares rose 3.3% in early trading.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and British pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.
Oil for February delivery slipped 70 cents to $102.26 a barrel.
Gold futures for February delivery fell $2.60 to $1,597.90 an ounce.
Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 1.96%.
TORONTO
Samsung Electronics Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), South Korea
Corn traders are bullish for a fifth consecutive week on speculation that dry weather in South America is damaging crops, boosting demand for U.S. supplies at a time when stockpiles are predicted to shrink to a 16-year low.
Nineteen of 25 traders surveyed by Bloomberg expect corn to advance next week. Lower-than-average humidity and dry soil will curb crop development in Argentina and southern Brazil through at least Jan. 7, according to T-Storm Weather LLC, a forecaster in Chicago. Argentina is the world
Warning: This column will feature no Top 10 list recounting the year’s biggest retail and consumer stories.
Instead, I thought I’d do something that journalists don’t always do so well, which is to follow up on some of our stories. So as 2011 comes to a close, I checked in on two businesses I’ve spilled ink on in the last year.
First, I popped into La Mancha Coffeehouse, a small, gutsy undertaking in the up-and-coming but still-has-a-ways-to-go neighborhood of Old North. I first wrote about the cafe in March, when it was about to open at 2815 North 14th Street, down the street from Crown Candy Kitchen.
As you might remember, a group of ’social do-gooders” had run a nonprofit cafe — Urban Studio Cafe — in the same space for about two years, but it ended up closing when it couldn’t make ends meet.
So Victoria and David Holden, who lived nearby and didn’t want to lose what had become an important community space, decided to give it a go as a for-profit cafe.
When I stopped in around mid-morning one day this week, the shop was empty aside from Victoria Holden and her only other employee. They were tidying up behind the counter. So how were things going?
“We’re good,” Holden said. “We’re here.”
Most of her customers are regulars — teachers stopping in on their way to school or workers from a nearby Habitat for Humanity work site, for example. A chess club meets regularly at the shop. And it hosts poetry readings now and then.
But it can be pretty slow at times.
“Business is up and down,” she acknowledged. “Some months we don’t get a full salary.”
The shop had an uptick, however, around the holidays, with more catering orders coming in and people buying gift certificates as presents. And this month, the cafe expanded hours to accommodate a late afternoon and early dinner crowd.
“But it varies a lot,” she said. “I wish there was some kind of (traffic) pattern I could plan for. But some things do revolve around weather and paychecks.”
Still, she’s been heartened by the community support, including regulars who have urged her to raise prices if she needs to.
“They say, ‘We just want you to stay in business. We just want you to be here,’” she said. “So that’s really encouraging.”
By the way, she does plan to raise prices next year to keep up with the rising cost of food and supplies.
A VINTAGE NEW NAME
In May, I wrote about Vintage Stock, a chain of new and used music, movie and video game stores that was moving into some of the shuttered Borders bookstores around town.
The Joplin-based company opened these multimedia superstores, which are larger than most of its other stores, under the banner of “Bam!” Two stores opened over the summer — one at Chesterfield Mall and another at Mid Rivers Mall.
But when a third store opened right before Thanksgiving in the former Borders space in South County Center, it went by a different name: “V-Stock.” Then earlier this month, the other two stores switched to that name, too.
Rodney Spriggs, the company’s chief executive, was a bit vague about the change when I asked if it was because the giant bookstore chain Books-A-Million had objected to him using that name. He said he couldn’t comment but did note that Books-A-Million has been using the “BAM!” name more prominently recently.
“All I can really say is that generally V-Stock ties in closer to Vintage Stock,” he said. “We chose to change it.”
How have the new stores been doing?
“They’ve been great,” he said. “We’re very happy with the sales numbers that have come out so far. It seems like the St. Louis customer base has taken to the concept very well.”
The newest store in South County has actually outperformed the other two by about 10 percent so far, he said. He thinks some of that may be because of demographics.
“South County is a little more blue collar, and I think they really like the idea of the value of buying previously viewed products,” he said.
Spriggs also has been a bit surprised by the popularity of the stores’ movie-rental business. After all, in the age of Netflix and on-demand cable services, who would go all the way to the mall to rent movies?
But Spriggs thinks he knows who: mall employees.
The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits took an upswing just before Christmas.
About 381,000 people filed initial jobless claims in the week ended Dec. 24, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was more than economists had expected and marked an increase of 15,000 from the prior week, when claims had fallen to their lowest level since April 2008.
The Labor Department adjusts the figures to account for seasonal trends, but still, the holidays can sometimes distort the numbers slightly. Economists look to the four-week average to smooth out volatility. In the latest report, that number decreased to 375,000, its lowest level since mid-2008.
"Around the holidays, initial claims tend to be volatile, so I think we don’t have to read too much into the small rebound today," said Aichi Amemiya, an economist with Nomura cheap pay day loans. "We believe the labor market continues to improve."
Meanwhile, continuing claims — which include Americans filing for their second week of claims or more — increased 34,000 to 3,601,000 in the week ended Dec. 17, the most recent data available.
Investors seemed to shrug off the numbers, optimistic that next week’s monthly jobs report will show employers ramped up their hiring slightly in December.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com predict the report will show employers added 150,000 jobs in December, up from 120,000 the month before. The unemployment rate, however, is expected to rise from 8.6% to 8.7%, as discouraged workers re-enter the labor force to look for jobs again.
The U.S. Treasury again shied away from labeling China a currency manipulator on Tuesday, but it rapped the country for not moving quickly enough on exchange rate reforms.
The United States also chided Japan for stepping into the currency market to stem the yen’s rise, and urged South Korea to use such interventions sparingly.
Some U.S. politicians have argued that China has gained an unfair competitive edge in global markets by keeping the yuan artificially low to boost exports, and pressure has mounted in Congress for President Barack Obama to punish China.
But the administration prefers to tread softly and use diplomacy. The U.S. Treasury, in a semi-annual report, as usual said that statutes covering a designation of currency manipulator “have not been met with respect to China.”
It repeated its standard line that appreciation in the yuan has been too slow, calling it “insufficient.”
“Treasury will closely monitor the pace of appreciation and press for policy changes that yield greater exchange rate flexibility, a level playing field, and a sustained shift to domestic demand-led growth,” it said in the report to Congress on international economic and exchange rate policies.
The value of the yuan, which Beijing manages closely, has risen 4 percent against the dollar this year and 7.7 percent since China dropped a firm peg against the greenback in June 2010. The Peterson Institute for International Economics recently estimated the yuan was undervalued by 24 percent against the dollar, down from 28 percent earlier in the year. It attributed the change to both Beijing’s policy of gradual currency appreciation and higher Chinese inflation.
At the heart of the friction between the two countries is a U.S. trade deficit with China that swelled in 2010 to a record $273.1 billion from about $226.9 billion in 2009. The cumulative Jan-Oct deficit with China is on track to top that this year, running at around $245.5 billion.
The U.S. Senate this year for the first time passed a bill that would require the administration to slap penalties on Chinese imports if it fails to adopt market-based exchange rates. While the measure has made no progress in the lower chamber and is unlikely to become law, it shows the mounting U.S. frustration with its vital trade partner.
President Obama at the November APEC meetings, in his toughest words yet, told President Hu Jintao that China must play by global trade rules and act like “a grown-up.”
Beijing has warned the United States not to “politicize” the currency issue, and some economists have pointed out that nations such as Japan and Switzerland have intervened in currency markets without drawing Washington’s ire.
TARGETING TOKYO
The report did point the finger at Japan this time, criticizing Tokyo for its solo yen-selling interventions in August and October that followed a joint Group of 7 action in the aftermath of the March 11 earthquake.
“The unilateral Japanese interventions were undertaken when exchange market conditions appeared to be operating in an orderly manner and volatility in the yen-dollar exchange rate was lower than, for example, the euro-dollar market,” the report said.
“In contrast to the post-earthquake joint G7 intervention in March, the United States did not support these interventions,” the Treasury said, adding that Tokyo should pursue reforms to revive its domestic economy rather than try to influence the exchange rate.
A senior Japanese government official said the report did not change Tokyo’s position that its currency policy was in line with G7 agreements.
“This report does not make it more difficult for Japan to intervene,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. “We are committed to doing whatever is necessary.”
Japanese exporters have complained that the ultra-strong yen puts them at a competitive disadvantage. The yen was trading at just under 78 to the U.S. dollar on Wednesday morning, about 3 percent weaker than it was on October 31, when Tokyo aggressively intervened to cap the rise.
The report also noted that South Korean authorities “should limit their FX interventions to exceptional circumstances of disorderly market conditions and adopt a greater degree of exchange rate flexibility.”
MORE OF THE SAME
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said the law on the FX report, which requires the administration to determine whether U.S. trade partners are deliberately undervaluing their currencies, is a poor tool to push Beijing on the yuan.
Instead, the United States prefers to argue for change at regular closed-door meetings with Chinese officials. It also uses international economic forums, such as the Group of 20 leading nations and the International Monetary Fund, to ramp up public pressure on Beijing to move more quickly to a more-flexible currency.
China is the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with about $1.1 trillion, a position that gives it leverage in international economic negotiations. Foreign exchange traders had not expected a change of U.S. tactics.
“It’s not very surprising. It’s sort of sliding it in under the radar. They’re (Treasury) really not in a position to make any major moves at this point,” said Sean Incremona, an economist at 4Cast in New York.
The Treasury Department has not labeled a country a currency manipulator since July 1994, when it cited China. A designation would require the United States to step up negotiations with Beijing on the yuan’s value.
The yuan slipped on Tuesday as strong dollar demand from corporations offset a record high mid-point fixed by the People’s Bank of China. The central bank set an all-time high dollar/yuan mid-point in an apparent move to let the yuan rise a little more at the end of 2011 so as to make the yuan’s full-year nominal appreciation look bigger, traders said.
Some U.S. manufacturers, which have been hit hardest by competition from China and other emerging economies, would still prefer the U.S. government to take a harder line.
“China’s currency is still enormously undervalued,” said Scott Paul, executive director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, an industry lobby for hard-hit textile, steel and labor groups.
“I’m disappointed that President Obama has now formally refused six times to cite China for its currency manipulation, a practice which has contributed to the loss of hundreds of thousands of American manufacturing jobs.”
NEW YORK, N.Y.
+%3Cp%3EChina%92s+home+prices+posted+their+worst+performance+this+year+with+more+than+half+of+the+70+biggest+cities+monitored+in+November+recording+declines+after+the+government+reiterated+plans+to+maintain+property+curbs.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ENew+home+prices+dropped+from+the+previous+month+in+49+of+the+cities+monitored+by+the+government%2C+compared+with+33+posting+decreases+in+October%2C+the+national+statistics+bureau+said+in+a+statement+on+its+website+yesterday.+Only+five+cities+had+gains+in+home+prices%2C+according+to+the+statement.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%93Home+prices+will+fall+further+as+the+government%92s+tightening+continues%2C%94+said+Jinsong+Du%2C+a+Hong+Kong-based+property+analyst+for+Credit+Suisse+Group+AG.+%93We%92ll+see+more+small+developers+file+for+bankruptcy+or+sell+off+their+assets+next+year.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+government+said+last+week+it+won%92t+back+away+from+real-+estate+industry+curbs+that+are+damping+home+sales+and+pulling+down+prices.+China+intensified+measures+this+year+by+raising+down+payment+and+mortgage+requirements+and+also+imposed+home+purchase+restrictions+in+40+cities.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ENew+home+prices+in+China%92s+four+major+cities+of+Shanghai%2C+Beijing%2C+Shenzhen+and+Guangzhou+each+retreated+0.3+percent+from+October%2C+the+biggest+monthly+falls+for+these+metropolitan+areas+this+year%2C+according+to+data+from+the+statistics+bureau.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+eastern+port+city+of+Ningbo+and+Shenyang+in+the+north+close+to+the+North+Korean+border+posted+the+biggest+month-on-+month+declines+of+0.6+percent%2C+while+Guiyang+in+the+southwest+rose+0.2+percent%2C+the+most+among+the+70+cities.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%91Critical+Stage%92++%3Cp%3EThe+gauge+tracking+property+stocks+on+the+%3Ca+topic_url%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Ftopics.bloomberg.com%2Fshanghai-se-composite%2F%22+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fapps%2Fquote%3Fticker%3DSHCOMP%3AIND%22+density%3D%22full%22+title%3D%22Get+Quote%22+ticker%3D%22SHCOMP%3AIND%22+class%3D%22web_ticker%22%3EShanghai+Composite+Index+%28SHCOMP%29+rose+0.3+percent+at+the+close%2C+the+only+industry+group+that+posted+a+gain+on+the+benchmark+measure.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+figures+came+after+private+data+also+showed+further+signs+of+cooling.+China%92s+home+prices+fell+for+a+third+month+in+November%2C+%3Ca+topic_url%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Ftopics.bloomberg.com%2Fsoufun-holdings-ltd%2F%22+href%3D%22http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fapps%2Fquote%3Fticker%3DSFUN%3AUS%22+density%3D%22sparse%22+title%3D%22Get+Quote%22+ticker%3D%22SFUN%3AUS%22+class%3D%22web_ticker%22%3ESouFun+Holdings+Ltd.+%28SFUN%29%2C+the+country%92s+biggest+real+estate+website%2C+said+earlier+this+month+based+on+its+survey+of+100+cities.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E%93It%92s+more+and+more+clear+that+home+prices+are+falling+around+the+country%2C%94+said+Shen+Jian-guang%2C+a+Hong+Kong-based+economist+at+Mizuho+Securities+Asia+Ltd.+%93It%92s+still+the+critical+stage+of+China%92s+property+curbs%2C+so+the+government+doesn%92t+want+to+send+any+signals+of+easing+of+those+policies+too+early+as+it+may+reverse+the+trend.%94+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EChinese+developers+will+face+challenges+over+the+next+12+to+18+months+including+slowing+sales%2C+tight+bank+credit+and+downward+pressure+on+prices+and+profit+margins%2C+Moody%92s+Investors+Services+said+in+a+Dec.+15+report.+%3C%2Fp%3E+Vanke%2C+Poly++%3Cp%3ENovember+contract+sales+of+China+Vanke+Co.%2C+the+country%92s+biggest+developer%2C+dropped+36+percent+from+last+year%2C+while+those+by+Poly+Real+Estate+Group+Co.%2C+the+second+largest%2C+fell+28+percent.+Developers+typically+sell+homes+before+they+are+built.+Vanke+shares+were+unchanged+in+Shenzhen%2C+after+falling+as+much+as+2.6+percent%2C+while+Poly+climbed+0.9+percent%2C+reversing+a+1.5+percent+decline.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EExisting+home+prices+in+Beijing+slid+0.7+percent+from+October%2C+while+those+in+Shanghai+retreated+0.5+percent%2C+according+to+the+statistics+bureau.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EChina+faces+slower+growth+in+home+sales+and+construction+next+year%2C+Fitch+Ratings+said+in+a+report+on+Dec.+13%2C+adding+that+smaller+builders+will+be+%93more+vulnerable%94+as+the+government+maintains+its+property+curbs.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EEasing+Measures%3F+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EThe+government+may+ease+its+measures+in+the+second+half+of+next+year+if+home+prices+in+major+cities+include+Beijing+and+Shanghai+fall+20+percent+from+their+2011+peaks%2C+according+to+Mizuho%92s+Shen.+Shanghai%92s+new+home+prices+gained+2.4+percent+from+a+year+earlier+in+November%2C+and+those+in+the+capital+city+added+1.3+percent%2C+according+to+the+statistics+bureau.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EResidential+property+investments+accounted+for+6.1+percent+of+the+country%92s+gross+domestic+product+last+year%2C+according+to+Citigroup+Inc.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EFalling+home+prices+helped+drive+sales+last+month.+Housing+transactions+rose+12+percent+in+November+to+416.4+billion+yuan+%28%2465.7+billion%29%2C+rebounding+from+a+decline+the+previous+month%2C+the+statistics+bureau+said+earlier+this+month.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3EChina%92s+home+prices+may+fall+between+5+percent+and+10+percent+next+year%2C+Kenny+Wu%2C+a+Hong+Kong-based+analyst+at+JI-+Asia+Research+Ltd.%2C+said+before+the+release+of+yesterday%92s+data.+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3E–Bonnie+Cao.+Editors%3A+Linus+Chua%2C+Jim+McDonald+%3C%2Fp%3E+%3Cp%3ETo+contact+Bloomberg+News+staff+for+this+story%3A+Bonnie+Cao+in+Shanghai+at+bcao4%40bloomberg.net+%3C%2Fp%3E++%3Cp%3E%3Ca+href%3D%27http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2011-12-18%2Fchina-s-november-home-prices-post-worse-performance-this-year-amid-curbs.html%27+rel%3D%27nofollow%27%3ESource%3C%2Fa%3E%3C%2Fp%3E+
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