Taiwan’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low and pledged to monitor property-price inflation, reinforcing forecasts for an increase in borrowing costs next year.
Governor Perng Fai-nan and his board left the discount rate on 10-day loans to banks at 1.25 percent yesterday, as forecast by all 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Taiwan, emulating Asian counterparts such as South Korea, is putting off rate increases to encourage investment and private consumption and pull the economy out of a yearlong slump. The central bank said in a statement yesterday that it saw no inflation pressure and Perng told reporters that policy makers will closely monitor property prices.
“The central bank is keeping rates steady to help strengthen the economic recovery,” said Serena Tseng, an economist at Jih Sun Securities Co. in Taipei. “Low consumer prices provide scope for the central bank to focus on reviving the economy.”
Kevin Hsiao, director of wealth management research at UBS AG in Taipei, said the central bank may raise rates by 25 basis points in the second quarter of 2010 as an economic recovery strengthens.
Rates Unchanged
Japan’s central bank on Dec. 18 maintained its benchmark overnight lending rate at 0.1 percent, and the Bank of Korea on Dec. 10 kept its rate unchanged for a 10th month at a record-low 2 percent, while signaling it may increase borrowing costs as the economic recovery gathers pace.
Taiwan’s central bank set next year’s target for growth in M2 money supply at between 2.5 percent and 6.5 percent, the same as for this year. It said that liquidity in the financial system in enough to support economic activities.
The island’s gross domestic product shrank 1.29 percent in the three months through September, the least in a year, after a revised 6.85 percent contraction in the second quarter. The economy may expand 4.39 percent next year, the cabinet’s statistics bureau projected last month.
President Ma Ying-jeou’s administration plans NT$858.5 billion ($26.5 billion) of spending over four years, or about 6 percent of GDP, on infrastructure, consumer grants and tax cuts to help revive the economy. Perng lowered borrowing costs by 2.375 percentage points from September 2008 to February.
Falling Unemployment
Signs of a recovery have prompted employers to start hiring, with Taiwan’s unemployment rate falling for a second straight month in November, and companies including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. forecasting better sales.
The benchmark Taiex stock index has climbed 74 percent this year, set for its best year since 1993, as investors bet the island’s economy is past the worst. The index climbed 21.13, or 0.3 percent to 7,984 easy fast payday loans.67 as of 12:11 p.m., rising for the sixth- consecutive day to its highest since June 19 last year. Taiwan’s dollar rose 0.2 percent to NT$32.247 against its U.S. counterpart at today’s lunch break, according to Taipei Forex Inc.
Low interest rates have boosted consumer spending and business investment. Domestic consumption climbed 2.2 percent in the three months through September, the first increase since the recession began.
Taiwan’s consumer prices will be “subdued” in the next three months, Governor Perng told reporters in a briefing after the rate decisions in Taipei yesterday.
Salary Increase
Taiwan Semiconductor, the island’s biggest company by market capitalization, said this month it will increase employees’ base salary by 15 percent, and capital spending next year will be “much higher” than the $2.7 billion budgeted for this year.
Taiwan’s exports climbed for the first time in 15 months in November, and consumer prices may increase 0.92 percent in 2010 after falling 0.73 percent this year, the statistic bureau said last month. The island’s top economic planner says the economy may grow 4.8 percent next year, the jobless rate fall to 4.9 percent and inflation run at 1 percent.
Economists including Chuang Rehong of SinoPac Securities Corp. in Taipei and Mill Lin of Chinatrust Commercial Bank say the central bank may shift to a tightening rate policy to curb excessive property-market movements after Perng last week repeated a call for lenders to monitor risks of deteriorating mortgage-loan quality.
Asset Bubbles
“The central bank has signaled its concerns on asset bubbles,” said Lin, who forecasts a rate increase in June 2010. “As long as the recovery persists, there is no reason for the central bank not to start raising borrowing costs.”
Taiwan’s central bank today issued a statement denying a newspaper report that said it is placing credit controls on properties in three metropolitan areas on the island. The Taipei-based Commercial Times said today the central bank is imposing credit controls in Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung.
Banks on the island of 23 million people have cut mortgage rates to the lowest since records began, helping drive up home prices 14.4 percent in the nine months through September, according to Sinyi Realty Co., Taiwan’s biggest real-estate brokerage.
Taiwan banks increased home loans by 4.3 percent to NT$4.91 trillion at the end of October from a year earlier, according to the central bank.
“I hope foreign inflows are for direct investment, not for purchases of assets,” Perng said.
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The credibility of the United Arab Emirates finance sector will suffer unless the authorities and lenders move quickly to assuage fears that Dubai’s debt troubles are spiraling out of control, analysts and bankers say.
Dubai, one of the seven emirates that make up the UAE, said on Wednesday it planned to restructure one of its holding companies, a shock announcement that triggered global concerns about the emirate’s ability to meet its debt obligations.
International banks’ exposure related to Dubai World amounts to $12 billion in syndicated and bilateral loans, banking sources told Thomson Reuters.
“I would say it is a huge shock for the UAE banking sector, and until we have some clarity the current situation will continue to cause damage,” said Raj Madha, banking analyst at EFG Hermes.
Regional banks such as Emirates NBD and Mashreq Bank, which play a pivotal role in funding the UAE economy, have not made public statements yet on their exposure.
“Dubai World and its entities account for a very large chunk of the Dubai economy and its indebtedness and we expect Emirates NBD to have a full share of that,” Madha said.
Officials at the Dubai-based bank could not be reached for comment.
UAE banks are exacerbating the situation by remaining silent on their exposures, said another banking analyst at a large international bank, who requested not be named.
“Unless there is clarity from banks, people will just make up numbers, which is worse,” he said. “On the whole, the reputation has been damaged.”
TRANSPARENCY
The region’s financial services sector has already drawn criticism for its lack of disclosure and transparency but some analysts expect the Dubai debt crisis to spark a change.
“The way in which the UAE authorities handle the problem will clearly be important for investor confidence, as it will set a precedent for Dubai,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
“Taking into view the huge reputational risks involved and also the amount of leverage that currently exists in the emirate we believe that the UAE authorities will be more likely to try and secure an orderly restructuring of outstanding liabilities of the two firms,” the Goldman analysts said.
As a result of Dubai’s debt struggle, banks will continue to face difficulties in the coming quarters.
“We expect asset quality to continue to deteriorate in the coming quarters and this trend could be exacerbated by the direct and indirect impact of a debt restructuring by Dubai World, which represents a major pillar of the Dubai economy,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Mohamed Damak.
Ailing telecom equipment maker Nokia Siemens Networks NSN.UL has changed its business focus to increasing its market share, the new chief executive of the venture was quoted as saying on Sunday.
“In early 2008 we made a strategic decision to focus more on cash flow and profitability than on the market share. Now it’s to give it up and to focus solely on the market share,” Rajeev Suri told Finnish daily Helsingin Sanomat.
Nokia Siemens Networks NSN.UL, a 50-50 venture of Nokia and Siemens, has struggled to make a profit since its start in 2007 as it has faced fierce competition from rivals Ericsson and Huawei HWT.UL.
As Nokia Siemens has focused on profits and avoided the deals most heavily competed for, its market share has dropped since last year, and in the last quarter it lost its second spot in the wireless equipment market to Huawei, according to research firm Dell’Oro.
(Reporting by Tarmo Virki; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)
The number of people shopping on Black Friday is expected to pick up more than 16% this year, according to a survey released Tuesday.
A staggering 57 million people said they would "definitely" head to stores on the day after Thanksgiving, up from 49 million in 2008, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation.
An additional 77 million said they would wait to decide after seeing the weekend deals.
And they could be persuaded, according to NRF president Tracy Mullin.
"Regardless of what we’ve already seen these last few weeks in terms of promotions, retailers still have a few tricks up their sleeves to excite Black Friday shoppers," Mullin said in a statement. "Americans can expect huge sales on popular items like toys, electronics and apparel."
Overall, up to 134 million people said they will shop on the Friday, Saturday or Sunday following Thanksgiving, up 6% from 128 million people the previous year.
The survey said 66.3% of consumers said they will head to department stores and 62.4% to big box stores on the day that kicks off the holiday shopping season cash advance loan. About 41.0% will shop at electronic stores, 36.3% at clothing stores, and 28.8% at grocery stores. With increased cyber deals from retailers, 27.6% said they would shop online.
A modest 10.3% said they would get to stores to scour for deals as early as midnight, according to the survey, while 28.8% said they would arrive around dawn, between 4 a.m. and 6 a.m. Another 28.2% said they would shop between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m.
Some stores are extending hours on Black Friday so consumers have more time to shop for their "doorbuster" deals.
Toys R Us announced last week it will open at midnight on Thanksgiving and offer deals 70 deals then and 50 more "doorbuster" deals at 5 a.m.
Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) also said its 810 stores that are not already open 24-hours will pull all-nighters for Black Friday.
The U.S. economy will grow more than expected in the third quarter, but unemployment also will continue to increase and "penetrate" the 10% barrier, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday.
Greenspan told the ABC program "This Week" that he expected 3% growth in the third quarter, up from the 2.5% he previously predicted. However, he said a "pretty awful" September employment report released Friday showed the jobless rate continued to climb.
A slowing or halt in job losses is different than reversing the rise in unemployment, Greenspan noted, adding that the nation’s unemployment rate — currently 9.8% — is "going to penetrate the 10% barrier before heading down."
That prediction matches previous comments by President Barack Obama and others who say that unemployment is a lagging indicator in an economic recovery.
Obama said Saturday his administration would focus on job creation, and Greenspan said he supported that approach. However, Greenspan said it was too soon to consider another economic stimulus package or other major spending plan.
"We are in a recovery, and I think it would be a mistake to say the September numbers alter that significantly," Greenspan said, adding: "This is what a recovery looks like. … It’s premature to act on this type of information."
The stimulus effect. Greenspan noted that only 40% of the $787 billion in Obama’s first stimulus package has been spent, and he said it was helping create momentum for the economic recovery.
In particular, he cited his prediction of higher-than-expected third quarter growth. "It looks as though it’s going to be 3%, possibly even higher," Greenspan said.
At the same time, Greenspan endorsed some short-term steps to help the unemployment situation, including extending jobless benefits for those out of work for months who face a cut-off.
He said he was particularly concerned at the large number of people out of work for more than six months. "Temporary actions must be taken especially to assuage the angst of a major part of the population," Greenspan said.
On the same program, two senators from opposing parties agreed on a series of necessary steps to help Americans deal with the effects of the recession.
Both Sen. Charles Schumer, D-New York, and Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, called for extending unemployment benefits, extending health-care benefits for the unemployed and extending housing credits to help people buy new homes.
Schumer said a bill extending unemployment benefits would reach the full Senate in the coming week and predicted it would pass, a move endorsed by Cornyn.
Wall Street stretched to new one-year highs Friday as investors weighed economic optimism with jitters about the pace of the rally amid the "quadruple witching," a big quarterly options expiration.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 36 points, or 0.4%. The blue-chip average closed at its highest point since Oct. 6, 2008.
The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose about 3 points, or 0.3% and closed just shy of a fresh almost one-year high.
The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 6 points, or 0.3% and closed just shy of a one-year high.
The major indexes have now risen in 9 of the last 11 sessions.
But trading was choppy Friday due to the quadruple options expiration, a quarterly event when stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time. By the afternoon, attendance was light, due to the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.
Stocks ended just below unchanged Thursday after closing Wednesday’s session at the highest point in nearly a year. Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 58% and the Dow has gained 50%. Since bottoming at a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68%.
Stocks have risen during those 6-1/2 months thanks to slowly improving economic news and extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.
But consumer sentiment is still well below what it should be and that’s creating some hesitation for investors, said Kelli Hill, portfolio manager at Ashfield Capital Partners. "The issue now is, what is it going to take for consumers to get back in and spend," she said.
Stocks have avoided the much-discussed September selloff, but Hill said it may have just been postponed until October, when the third-quarter profit reports start arriving. "Expectations for a broad earnings recovery could prove disappointing and that could create more volatility."
Economy: Michigan, Nevada and three other states posted unemployment rates above 12% in August, according to government data released Friday.
The report came one day after the Labor Department reported a surprise drop in weekly unemployment claims. Earlier this month, the government said employers cut 216,000 jobs from their payrolls in August.
On the move: Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) rallied 3.2% and was among the Dow’s biggest gainers after Citigroup upgraded it to "buy" from "hold."
Other Dow gainers included components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500), Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and AT&T (T, Fortune 500) insurance quotes.
Palm (PALM) said late Thursday that smartphone sales surged 134% to 823,000 last quarter, thanks to sales of its Pre phone. However, the company still reported a steep quarterly loss, its 9th consecutive decline. Shares fell 3%.
Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by nearly three to two on volume of 2.27 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped losers on volume of 3.2 billion shares.
Flash trading: The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed banning so-called flash orders Thursday, a trading practice that critics say gives market pros an unfair advantage over individual investors.
Flash orders allow certain traders to see orders to buy and sell stocks and other securities a split second before the rest of Wall Street, giving them advance knowledge about the direction of a market or a security. Flash orders make up less than 3% of stock trading.
Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Ted Kaufman, D-Del., have led the legislative push. But supporters worry that the government will also begin a crackdown on other kinds of trading practices that can help move the market along.
Nasdaq OMX Group, which runs the Nasdaq Stock Market and the BATS exchange stopped using flash orders as of Sept. 1. The New York Stock Exchange, owned by NYSE Euronext, has never used them. Currently, Direct Edge makes use of them.
Regulators are also looking at new limits on the credit ratings industry, dominated by Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.
Currency and commodities: The dollar gained against the yen and euro after sliding for most of the last two weeks. The dollar hit a 9-month low against the euro and a 7-month low against the yen earlier this week.
The falling greenback has been lifting dollar-traded commodities lately, but the reversal Friday had little impact on the price of oil or gold.
U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 43 cents to settle at $72.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $3.20 to settle at $1,010.30 an ounce. Gold settled Wednesday at a record high of $1,020.20.
Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.45% from 3.39% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 ended higher, but France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX all slipped. Asian markets ended lower.
Some 5,000 patients suddenly found themselves without an ob/gyn last November when Dr. Tara Wah closed her practice in Tallahassee, Fla.
Wah, 55, informed her patients in a letter that she could "no longer afford to make ends meet."
After 24 years, "I’m working longer hours than ever," she wrote. "Insurance payments for patient care have stayed virtually the same for the last 15 years, while the cost of doing business, including health insurance, staff salaries and supplies have risen."
The rising cost of malpractice insurance, particularly for her specialty, was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
"My malpractice insurance was $125,000 a year, and going up," said Wah. "The only way to get the extra money was to cut back on my salary."
But it wasn’t always like that. Being a doctor was once thought to be a path to a cushy lifestyle. Six years after she started practicing, Wah hit her "peak" income year in 1990. Then she took a pay cut every year from 1993 onward, to eventually take no salary for two months prior to permanently shutting her office.
Wasted skills
Wah no longer practices medicine. Instead, she designs and repairs jewelry. "I feel guilty. I dream about [medicine]," she said. "[But] I am so angry. I think, ‘What a waste of my training.’ "
Wah’s situation sheds light on a troubling trend of physicians leaving medicine for a career outside of health care, said Kurt Mosley, a staffing expert with Merritt Hawkins & Associates, a physician search and consulting firm.
A first-ever survey of 12,000 primary care physicians conducted last October by Merritt Hawkins and the Physicians’ Foundation, an organization that represent the interests of physicians, showed that 10.1% of respondents planned to seek a job outside of health care in the next one to three years.
"That is a big number. It’s just very sad," said Mosley, especially in light of the shortage of primary care doctors in the United States today.
The American Medical Association said it is aware of this trend, citing the survey, but said it does not have data to show how many doctors have already prematurely exited the profession.
Regardless, Mosley said it’s a waste of training, skill, talent and money when a doctor leaves the profession in mid-career.
It takes a minimum of 10 to 12 years of training to become a doctor. In Wah’s case, she underwent 10 years of training, including medical school and residency, before she entered the workforce.
While some enter medicine because they believe it pays well, most choose it as a career because they feel it’s their calling.
"For many it’s not about the money. They have a passion for it, to take care of people," said Mosley. "It’s not easy to feel that passionately for another career after medicine."
Waste of taxpayer money
It’s also a waste of taxpayer money when a physician opts out. "We are all paying out of our pockets to produce doctors," said Mosley.
That’s because medical residency programs are mostly funded by Medicare to the tune of $9 billion to train about 100,000 residents annually, according to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission.
"It’s Medicare that funds hospital costs to house residency programs, pay salaries of residents and sometimes pay faculties’ salaries," said Mosley.
Dr. Patricia Perry, 44, a dermatologist based in Burbank, Calif., operates a solo practice. She mostly performs medical procedures such as skin biopsies.
Perry said she’s "seeking to get out" of her profession because she’s fed up with insurance reimbursement challenges while struggling to cover other costs associated with being a doctor.
"When you get to a point where you feel unappreciated and you’re arguing with people about being paid, it takes away the passion for what you do," Perry said.
Daryl Richard, a spokesman for insurer UnitedHealthcare (UHC), said his company is taking steps to address some of providers’ concerns.
"We agree 100% that there is too much paperwork" tied to reimbursement claims, he said.
Richard said UnitedHealthcare offers a Web-based application to all of its providers that will enable the company to adjudicate claims to determine a reimbursement and a patient’s out-of-pocket expense "by the time the patient makes it to the (doctor’s) front desk."
"This takes away some of the unknown for both providers and consumers," he added.
Perry pays $2,500 a year in malpractice insurance. "I am licensed in three states. To maintain my license I have to pay a fee every one to two years in each state," she said. She also pays a considerable amount of money every year to attend annual trade conferences required by her specialty to update and hone her skills.
She said many physicians are scared to speak out about their money woes because they don’t want to be perceived as "greedy."
"I have news for you. You are already being perceived that way," she said.
Dr. Kenneth Cohn, a general surgeon with an MBA who tours the country advising doctors on non-clinical job options, says there’s a high-level of angst among U.S. physicians. "There’s absolutely a greater number who are looking for other job opportunities," he said.
It’s a reality that we have to deal with, Cohn said. The implication of it on the health care system, he said, is that doctors may have to increasingly use nurse practitioners and physicians assistants to fill in the gaps. They may also need to look to newer delivery concepts such as medical homes, in which doctor take more of a managerial role in a patient’s health care.
‘Insurance company is dictating what I do’
Dr. Douglas Evans, 50, a pediatrician based in St. Joseph, Mo., said he’s considering a mid-career change if insurer-provider relations aren’t reformed.
"I had a young football player in my office [this week]. His symptoms indicate a problem with his neck," he said in an example. "But I have to get authorization from his insurance company first to get an X-ray or an MRI. It’s an example of how insurance companies dictate to me what I have to do."
Evans is frustrated that this process will delay treatment by several days.
"My first concern is that he’s young and has his career in front of him," he said. "My second concern is that there’s a predatory lawyer out there," meaning that if his patient’s condition worsens while he waits to get authorization, it could expose him to a malpractice suit.
And Evans said insufficient reimbursement from insurers is posing a heavy financial burden on his practice.
"You can’t go to Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) and pay half the price for a loaf of bread and take the whole bread," he said. Still, he said many doctors have a hard time turning away patients for this reason alone, and end up absorbing the costs.
He warns that unless things improve, only those providers who can’t afford to do something else will be left in the system. "I am looking for something that’s still science related, like teaching biology at a university," said Evans.
Wah is disillusioned and disappointed, but maybe not completely bitter.
"For the young doctors who are just getting started, I want to say don’t give up," she said.
"After taking some time off , I might be able to do some volunteer work," she said. "I do love medicine, but I’m not [mentally] in a place right now to come back."
Investors are hoping the surprisingly strong summer market rally will last at least one more week — before any second-guessing in the fall kicks in.
"We saw a huge rebound at the end of last week and that will probably carry over," said Richard Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants. "But the trading volume is going to be very light."
The S&P 500 has jumped just shy of 52% since hitting a 12-year low on March 9. Bets that the sky is not falling after all and the economy will recover - paired with generous fiscal and monetary stimulus - have boosted the market.
But the recent leg of the advance has been run on thin trading volume, even for summer. Low volume tends to exaggerate market moves.
"It won’t be until September that we’ll be able to really see how it settles," Hughes said. "The focus is shifting from wondering when the recession is going to end to wondering what a recovery is going to look like," he said.
Next week brings reports on personal income and spending, as well as home prices, all of which are important in the bigger discussion about how the consumer is holding up. A revision of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) is also on tap.
Confirming a recovery: Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is nearing a recovery, although the pace will be slow as unemployment stays high.
Reports on housing and manufacturing showed surprising gains last week, while the closely-watched weekly jobless claims report showed more Americans filed for first-time benefits than economists were expecting. In the weeks ahead, Wall Street is going to be looking for more confirmation that a recovery is underway.
"Typically when you’re moving from recession to expansion, you get numbers that conflict with each other, like the jobless claims," said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds. "That trend will continue."
He said that of greater interest in the weeks ahead will be "how quickly the economy makes the transition" into a period of expansion and whether the consumer starts spending again. Consumers have jumped into the government’s soon-to-end Cash for Clunkers program, but have otherwise held back on non-essentials..
On the docket
Monday: There are no market moving events on the schedule Monday.
Tuesday: The August consumer confidence index from the Conference Board is expected to have risen to 48.8 from 46.6 in July, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The S&P/CaseShiller home price index, a measure of 20 major cities, is expected to have fallen 16.4% in June versus a year ago after falling 17.1% in May. If that estimate turns out to be accurate, it would be the third month in a row that the pace of declines has lessened.
In May, the report showed that home prices rose versus the previous month, the first monthly increase in almost 3 years.
Wednesday: New home sales are expected to have risen to an annualized rate of 390,000 in July from an annualized rate of 384,000 in June. The Commerce Department report is due after the start of trading.
July durable goods orders are expected to have risen 3.2% after falling 2.5% in June. Orders, excluding transportation, are expected to have risen 1% after rising 1.1% in June. The Commerce Department report is due in the morning.
The weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is also due in the morning.
Thursday: Second-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP) is expected to have contracted at a 1.4% annualized rate, worse than the initially reported 1% rate, but not as sharp as the 6.4% decline in the previous quarter. The Commerce Department report is due before the start of trading.
A report is also due in the morning on weekly jobless claims.
Toll Brothers (TOL) reports results in the morning. The homebuilder is expected to report a loss of $1.26 per share versus a loss of 18 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reports results after the close. The computer maker is expected to have earned 23 cents per share versus 31 cents a year ago, according to forecasts.
Friday: The Commerce Department releases reports on July personal income and spending before the start of trading.
Income is expected to have risen 0.1% after falling 1.3% in June. Spending is expected to have risen 0.2% after rising 0.4% in June. The PCE Core deflator, the report’s inflation component, is expected to have risen 0.1% after rising 0.2% in June.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, due shortly after the start of trading, is expected to be revised up to 64.8 from the originally reported 63.2.
Small M&A advisory shops, once expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the financial crisis, are instead struggling to grow and are facing pressure to expand beyond their advisory businesses.
Analysts and investors had expected advisory firms such as Greenhill, Evercore Partners and Duff & Phelps to boost revenue by tapping talented bankers from large institutions, where writedowns on credit losses led to U.S. government cash injections and restrictions on pay.
But earnings at these so-called boutique firms have also been squeezed by the global recession and hiring has proved to be costly in spite of the downturn.
“If you’re doing M&A advisory in a period where there’s a lot of activity going on, then great,” said Roger Freeman, an analyst at Barclays Capital. “But when that ends you start scratching your head and thinking how are you going to make money — and if you’ve taken that extra step and gone public, now the pressure’s on you from shareholders.”
Year-to-date, U.S.-target M&A has slipped to $438.1 billion, compared with $725.9 billion over the same period a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters data.
No matter what unique niche they occupy, advisory shops need to look beyond their core business to expand, Freeman said.
“You inevitably see it expand because you hit the limits of what you can do in that narrow scope and investors want to see revenue growth,” he said.
Like the larger banks, advisory companies’ stock has been volatile this year. While Evercore shares have leaped more than 80 percent since the start of the year to $22.51, Greenhill shares are up 5.5 percent at $73.82 and Duff & Phelps shares are down 4 percent at $18.28.
ACQUISITIONS
Many advisory shops had been relying on restructuring fees to offset the drop in acquisitions, but there is concern the slowly improving capital markets may curtail the restructuring business without providing an offsetting boost in takeovers.
That has some shops now looking for acquisitions of their own to capitalize on advantages they have over larger firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which became bank holding companies last year and are now subject to more onerous regulation.
Some, such as Gleacher Partners, an advisory firm run by banking veteran Eric Gleacher, have already joined forces with other businesses. Gleacher agreed in March to combine with Broadpoint Securities Group, a small independent investment bank, to form Broadpoint Gleacher. Broadpoint shares have soared more than 100 percent since the start of the year to $6.33.
Others, including Evercore, which has climbed to 10th place in the year-to-date league table for global mergers and acquisitions, are planning to build out investment management businesses.
“We’re going to … carefully look at high-quality opportunities to expand that business,” Ralph Schlosstein, the firm’s new chief executive, said on a call with analysts discussing second-quarter results.
Evercore, which acquired Bank of America Corp’s special fiduciary services division in April, had about $3 billion under management at the end of the second quarter, but it has been hurt by losses on private-equity investments.
More employers are planning to reverse pay cuts and other employee cutbacks, another sign that the employment picture is improving, according to a survey released Thursday.
The percentage of employers who will reverse pay cuts jumped to 44% in August from 30% just two months ago, consulting firm Watson Wyatt said.
About one-third of companies plan to unfreeze salaries within the next six months, up from 17%, according to the report that surveyed 175 large employers.
"Some employers are seeing the light at the end of tunnel and feeling optimistic," said Laura Sejen, a director at Watson Wyatt, in a statement..
Almost one-quarter of employers plan to reverse reductions to 401(k) match contributions in the next six months, up from just 5% in June online payday loan.
However, health care did not fare as well. The survey found 66% of companies that increased the percentage employees pay for health care premiums do not expect to reverse that decision.
And 40% are planning to increase the percentage employees pay for health care premiums. About the same number expect to increase the deductibles, co-pays or out-of-pocket maximums for 2010 health care plans.
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