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How to get in on the crude price boom

Monday, 12. May 2008 von Superman

VANCOUVER–With the price of crude hitting new peaks almost daily, driving up gasoline costs, many investors are wondering how they, too, can start pocketing some oil profits from their investmeents.

Money managers say it’s not too late to jump on the oil and gas bandwagon, particularly if you are selective about which stocks to buy.

One tip is to invest in oil producers whose pricing isn’t hedged, but instead tied to spot prices, which surpassed $125 this week, up 75 per cent from the same time last year and more than double from January 2007. This includes intermediates such as ProEx Energy Ltd. and Storm Exploration and large caps such as Husky Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Ltd. and Petro-Canada.

Joanne Hruska, vice-president of portfolio management at Aston Hill Financial in Calgary, said hedging is sometimes a good move, but with the recent surge in oil prices some companies have seen the strategy backfire.

Major natural gas producer and oilsands operator EnCana Corp. reported a first-quarter hedging loss of $737 million after tax after being committed by contracts to sell about 40 per cent of its natural gas output at predetermined prices. That prevented it from taking full advantage of higher spot gas prices in the energy market.

"A lot of people have hedges, so please Mr. and Mrs. Layman investor, look for sources of hedging or ask your famous portfolio managers," said Hruska, who bought EnCana shares after that loss was reported.

Another way to benefit from the rising price of oil is to consider companies such as Enbridge Inc and TransCanada Corp. who build the pipes to carry the crude.

And while refiners and integrated companies may be getting squeezed by oil’s surge, experts say don’t rule them out either, especially for long-term investors cash till payday.

Hruska also said royalty trusts should get a second look from investors after their value dropped following the news 18 months ago that they would be taxed as corporations starting in 2011.

Gavin Graham, chief investment officer at the Guardian Group of Funds, said most investors shouldn’t make their decisions based solely on the price of oil.

"Regardless of whether oil is going up or down from there, these are profitable businesses that grow over time," said Graham.

He said investors should not only consider oil and gas companies, but others that work with the industry and are benefiting from its growth, such as Caterpillar heavy equipment dealer Finning International, which last week announced a $360 million contract to supply giant Caterpillar mining trucks and huge bulldozers to Suncor Energy.

If oil sinks back down to the $50 mark, Graham said the advice might be different, but given that oil is above $125 without being spurred by a hurricane or disruption in the Middle East, it’s likely oil prices will remain high.

John Stephenson, senior vice-president and portfolio manager at First Asset Management also says oil prices will remain high, thanks to demand from the fast-growing economies of China and India.

"Right now there is no other choice and we have huge demand."

Adrian Mastracci, portfolio manager with KCM Wealth Management, said while a lot of the "easy money" has been made in the energy sector already, more profit can be made by investors who can stomach the volatility.

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Tax Rebates Won

Sunday, 11. May 2008 von Superman

The Bush administration's tax rebates won't prevent the U.S. economy from stagnating in the second quarter as soaring food and fuel bills hurt consumers, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

“Consumers have gone into the bunkers,'' said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, the New York- based research group that tracks confidence. They “fear that their budgets are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.''

The economy will grow at a 0.1 percent annual rate from April to June, the least since the 2001 recession, according to the median estimate of 54 economists surveyed from May 2 to May 8. Household spending may rise at a 0.5 percent pace, half the first quarter's gain and the smallest increase in 17 years.

Economists also said the economy would grow less in the second half of the year than forecast last month, even as the odds of a recession came down. After paying the higher costs of food and gasoline, the $117 billion in rebates may leave little extra as individual taxpayers are limited to $600.

“A $600 check isn't enough to turn things around,'' said Goldstein. “It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it's not going to be rebuilt real fast.''

The survey median showed the economy will expand at a 1.5 percent pace in the fourth quarter, following a 1.6 percent growth rate in the previous three months, when most of the money returned by the government is likely to be spent. The U.S. grew at a 0.6 percent pace in the first three months of 2008.

`Disappointing'

“The rebates won't generate a sustained increase in spending,'' said John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. “By the fourth quarter, growth will look disappointing to most people.''

After accelerating to a 2.3 percent annual pace in the third quarter, gains in consumer purchases will slow to 1.6 percent in the last three months of the year. Spending rose at an average rate of about 3.4 percent over the past decade.

Federal Reserve policy makers will keep the target interest rate unchanged at 2 percent until the second quarter of next year, the survey showed, to allow time for the 3.25 points of reductions since September to take effect.

Another sign of slumping domestic demand is a decline in imports, which is narrowing the country's trade gap. The U.S. trade deficit in March narrowed more than forecast to $58.2 billion, as imports dropped by the most in more than six years, the Commerce Department said today.

Recession Chances

Economists polled remained on recession watch, even as the odds of a U.S. contraction now, or within the next 12 months, fell to 55 percent from 70 percent in the April survey http://savingpaydayloans.com.

“I don't think we're totally out of a bad situation that could easily get worse,'' said Oscar Gonzalez, an economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston. “We're walking along the edge'' of a recession, he said.

One risk is the labor market may worsen. The unemployment rate will rise to 5.5 percent by the end of 2008, from 5 percent in April, the survey showed. The economy lost 260,000 jobs in the first four months of this year, and companies remain reluctant to hire.

Cash-strapped Americans are accumulating credit-card and other forms of debt. Consumer borrowing jumped more than double the amount economists forecast in March, while the share of banks making it tougher for companies and consumers to borrow approached a record in the past three months, according to Fed reports this week.

Wal-Mart Shoppers

Shoppers are turning to discount chains to stretch their paychecks. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, said sales at outlets open at least a year may rise as much as 2 percent in May, excluding fuel. That's after a 3.2 percent gain in April that was larger than they anticipated.

Still, even Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart has noticed a change in buying patterns.

“The economy continues to get tougher and the paycheck cycle is more pronounced for customers than in past months,'' Eduardo Castro-Wright, chief executive officer of Wal-Mart's U.S. stores, said yesterday in a statement. “As money gets tighter for them toward the end of the month, sales drop more than we have seen in the past.''

Purchases of expensive goods are plummeting. Sales of cars and light trucks in April slid to a 14.4 million annualized rate, the lowest since 1998, according to industry figures.

The jump in inflation may not go much beyond record prices for gasoline and the rising cost of food, economists said. Prices tied to consumer spending and excluding food and fuel, the Fed's preferred measure, will rise 2 percent in 2008, according to the survey median, the smallest gain in five years.

Compared with prior surveys that typically reflected more than 60 responses, the May poll was based on fewer estimates, indicating economists' projections may be in flux.

“The uncertainty is palpable,'' said Martin Regalia, chief economist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington. “We're flirting with a recession, but it's just not clear. If we stayed right where we are, it's almost a coin flip.''

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Microsoft

Friday, 09. May 2008 von Superman

Just how serious was Microsoft Corp. about raising its bid to $47.5 billion for slumping Internet pioneer Yahoo Inc.?

The answer is taking on greater importance as more outraged Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) shareholders threaten to sue the company’s board - or try to replace the 10 directors — for the way they responded to Microsoft’s sweetened offer.

With shareholders up in arms, Sunnyvale-based Yahoo has been trying to raise doubts about the legitimacy of Microsoft’s last bid of $33 a share by pointing out that it wasn’t submitted in writing.

There is even a theory circulating that Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) Chief Executive Steve Ballmer dangled the new offer before his Yahoo counterpart, Jerry Yang, fully knowing that it would be spurned and open a window for him to flee a deal that was starting to look like a potential albatross.

Yahoo shares fell 37 cents, or 1.4%, to $25.35 as trading opened Monday, while Microsoft shares rose 6 cents to $29.76.

In Tokyo, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates said Wednesday the company isn’t pursuing other deals. He said the company put "a lot of effort" in the talks with Yahoo and has decided the two should pursue "independent paths."

Since the talks unraveled, The Associated Press contacted people familiar with the deal to piece together how the final days of negotiations unfolded. These people asked not to be identified because the talks were confidential.

While they differed on some details, the people agreed Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft didn’t spell out the $47.5 billion offer in writing. Instead, it was orally presented by both Ballmer and Brad Smith, the software maker’s general counsel.

In contrast, Microsoft’s initial bid of $44.6 billion, or $31 per share, was sent to Yahoo’s board in a Jan. 31 letter that contained specific financing terms.

Although raising a takeover bid orally isn’t ideal, it’s acceptable when two sides like Microsoft and Yahoo already have been engaged a lengthy dialogue, said Morton Pierce, a New York lawyer specializing in corporate acquisitions.

"You would always prefer to have [an offer] in writing to see if there are any conditions attached, but it’s not necessary when people have been negotiating in good faith," Pierce said.

Microsoft and Yahoo executives had already held several rounds of meetings by the time Ballmer came to California April 30 to meet with Yang in hopes of settling on a mutually acceptable sale price.

To help steer them, Microsoft and Yahoo had hired a high-priced team of investment bankers and lawyers. Microsoft’s team included Bear Stearns Cos (BSC, Fortune 500).,Blackstone Group LP (BX) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), while Yahoo’s group was led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc http://us-fast-cash-now.com. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

The advice didn’t come cheaply. Yahoo, for instance, said it had already spent $14 million through March on help hired to grapple with the Microsoft bid.

One person familiar with the deal said Yang told Ballmer at the April 30 meeting that he thought Yahoo was worth $38 per share. Another person denied Yang threw out a specific figure at that meeting.

But these two people agreed Ballmer told Yang he thought he could come up with "a couple more dollars." Microsoft’s board also met April 30 to consider raising the bid.

Ballmer contacted Yang May 1 to let him know he was "formally offering a couple dollars more," one person said.

On May 2, Smith called Ronald Olson, an outside lawyer for Yahoo, to make it clear Microsoft would pay $33 per share and the offer could be presented to Yahoo’s board.

The next day, Yang and fellow Yahoo founder David Filo flew on a private jet to meet with Ballmer and Kevin Johnson, Microsoft’s head of online operations, at a Seattle airport.

Ballmer reiterated Microsoft’s new offer of $33 per share, a 12% increase from the value of the original bid, which had fallen to $29.40 per share because half the purchase was to have been financed with Microsoft’s declining stock. The shares had dropped 10% since the original bid was made.

Yang and Filo said they personally believed Yahoo was worth $38 per share but could go along with the board’s desire for $37 per share.

Filo’s presence at this pivotal meeting has puzzled some investors and analysts because he isn’t on the company’s board. Filo is a major shareholder, though, with a 5.8% stake in the company, exceeding Yang’s 3.9% stake.

Activist shareholder Eric Jackson thinks it was a bad idea to entrust a pivotal round of negotiations to two people with deep emotional ties to Yahoo. Yang, 39, and Filo, 41, started Yahoo in 1994 while graduate students at Stanford University.

The board’s decision to let Yang and Filo handle the May 3 talks made them look like "a couple of kids who had been sent along with bad advice from their parents," said Jackson, who is trying to organize an effort to oust Yahoo’s board.

The topic of how Microsoft would finance its sweetened bid didn’t come up at that Saturday meeting, and it soon became a moot point. Around 4 p.m. that day, Ballmer called Yang to tell him Microsoft was withdrawing its bid. 

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U.K. Factory Production Unexpectedly Fell in March

Thursday, 08. May 2008 von Superman

U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly declined and a measure of consumer confidence dropped to a four-year low as the slowdown caused by the seizure in credit markets spread through the economy.

Factory output fell 0.5 percent, compared with a 0.4 percent gain in February, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. An index tracking sentiment among consumers dropped 7 points to 70, the lowest since the survey began in May 2004, Nationwide Building Society said.

Car production dropped because of the Easter holiday, and makers of food, drinks and tobacco also trimmed output. The figures increase the chances that Bank of England policy makers bring forward their next interest rate reduction, though most economists expect no change tomorrow.

“This does make it a rather closer call than it was before, but I don't think they're going to move tomorrow,'' said Mark Cliffe, chief economist at ING Financial Markets, in a Bloomberg Television interview. “But this is delaying the inevitable.''

Factory production fell in March for the first time in three months. Ten out of 13 categories of manufacturing declined, led by transport equipment, as production dropped at carmakers, the statistics office said.

The pound dropped to a 2 1/2 month-low. It traded down $0.0149 at $1.958 at 10:10 a.m. in London. A trade-weighted index tracking the pound against a basket of currencies has fallen 12.3 percent since July.

“In due course, manufacturing will benefit from a weaker exchange rate,'' said Geoffrey Dicks, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc. “But for now, in a difficult environment for costs and demand, it is struggling.''

The International Monetary Fund lowered its global growth forecast in April to 3.7 percent this year from a previous prediction of 4.1 percent, citing the fallout from the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market.

Economists had predicted no change for manufacturing production, according to the median of 33 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year ago, production rose 0.6 percent.

CSR Plc, the U.K payday loans. maker of microchips for Nokia Oyj mobile phones, posted a first-quarter loss on May 1 and said second- quarter sales will be lower than analysts' estimates.

U.K. services companies from banks to hotels grew at the slowest pace since March 2003 last month, a survey by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply showed yesterday. An index of consumer confidence fell to 70, the least since the series began in May 2004, Nationwide Building Society said today.

Industrial production, which includes oil and gas extraction and utilities, fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter, twice as much as previously estimated, the statistics office said today. That will shave 0.02 percentage point from its economic growth estimate of 0.4 percent for the first three months of the year.

Factory output still increased 0.3 percent in the first quarter. A weaker currency has supported manufacturers, making their goods less expensive overseas.

Inflation Risk

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King last week predicted that inflation will rise above the government's 3 percent limit, stoked by higher commodity prices and the weaker currency. Crude oil rose to a record above $122 yesterday, and United Nations data showed food prices globally rose 57 percent in March from a year earlier.

The central bank had its first three-way split in almost two years last month when policy makers cut the key rate by a quarter point. Policy makers Andrew Sentance and Timothy Besley wanted no change on concern about inflation, while David Blanchflower favored a half-point cut to avert a recession.

All except five of 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey predict the rate-setting committee will keep the benchmark unchanged tomorrow. The bank announces the decision at noon in London.

“There is enough weakness in the data now to generate an early move,'' Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase in London, said yesterday. He predicts a quarter-point cut tomorrow.

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Greenspan Says `Pale Recession

Tuesday, 06. May 2008 von Superman

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. has slipped into an “awfully pale recession'' and may continue to languish for the rest of the year.

“We are clearly receding,'' with economic growth now at about zero percent, he said in an interview with Bloomberg News. Greenspan, who now consults for clients including Deutsche Bank AG, also said it was too soon to declare the end to the credit crisis stemming from the collapse in the subprime mortgage market.

The former Fed chief's assessment echoes figures in the past month that show declines in manufacturing and housing industries, though fewer job losses than economists forecast. Greenspan's successor, Ben S. Bernanke, and his colleagues indicated last week they are ready for a pause in interest-rate cuts after seven reductions since September.

Greenspan spoke the day before the Federal Open Market Committee's April 30 statement, where it dropped a previous reference to “downside'' risks to growth and noted “uncertainty'' about the outlook for inflation.

While declining to comment on monetary policy, Greenspan said the economy is returning to a more inflation-prone period. Import prices are rising, as are wages overseas, adding to pressures already caused by soaring costs of food, energy and other commodities.

Bernanke is scheduled to speak on mortgage markets today at 8:30 p.m. in New York.

`Tug-of-War'

Greenspan, 82, portrayed the economy as being caught in a “tug-of-war'' between cash-rich businesses on the one hand and money-losing financial institutions on the other. “This is a very unusual situation,'' he said. “Neither side is obviously winning the battle.''

The economy grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate over the last two quarters, the slowest pace since the 2001 recession.

Greenspan said that continued stagnation for the rest of this year may be the best the U.S. can hope for and might even be the most likely outcome. “That's certainly the most benevolent scenario,'' he said. “It's not all that far from being the most probable.''

“We're in a recession,'' he said. “But this is an awfully pale recession at the moment. The declines in employment have not been as big as you'd expect to see.''

The government reported on May 2 that U.S. payrolls fell by 20,000 in April, compared with the median estimate of a 75,000 decline in a Bloomberg survey.

Unexpected Drop

The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5 percent from 5.1 percent in March.

Service industries unexpectedly expanded in April, signaling the damage from the housing slump and credit crisis may be dissipating payday loans in 1 hour. The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 52 from 49.6 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM said. Readings greater than 50 signal growth.

The former Fed chief said a recovery won't begin until home prices show signs of stabilizing, relieving pressure on financial firms to write off mortgage-related losses.

“Until there are stabilized prices of homes, and I think they have a good way to go down, you still have prospective losses'' for financial companies and investors. “It's too soon to tell'' if the worst of the credit crunch is over, he added.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell in February by the most on record. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index dropped 12.7 percent from the same month last year.

`Bottom Out'

“It is possible, not probable, that prices could bottom out'' toward the end of the year, Greenspan said.

He saw the economy reverting to the period prior to the 1990s, where inflation was more of a threat.

“The trade-off between inflation and growth is clearly turning adverse,'' he said. “We're going back to where we were before the end of Cold War.''

Greenspan in the past has argued that the expansion of the global labor force brought on by the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of China was a powerful force bringing down global inflation. That trend is now fading as workers in the emerging markets obtain higher wages.

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy, rose 2.1 percent in March from 12 months before. Including the two items, prices climbed 3.2 percent, the fifth straight month in excess of 3 percent.

`Less Gloomy'

The former Fed chief did say he was less gloomy about the threat of protectionism compared with a few years ago.

“I'm clearly less pessimistic than I was two or three years ago, not because there hasn't been an increase in protectionism, but the rate of deterioration has been far less than I feared,'' Greenspan said.

Democratic lawmakers, after winning a majority in both houses of Congress in the 2006 elections, threatened to raise tariffs on imports from China and take action against Japan for allegedly keeping its currency too low. No such legislation has ever passed.

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U.K. Personal Insolvencies Rose in First Quarter

Saturday, 03. May 2008 von Superman

U.K. personal insolvencies increased in the first three months of the year as the dearth of credit and rising loan rates left consumers unable to meet their debts.

Individual insolvencies in England and Wales rose 1.7 percent from the previous quarter to 25,264, the U.K. government's Insolvency Service said today on its Web site.

“We will see personal insolvencies climbing to a record this year of around 130,000,'' said Sue Maund, a partner at accountancy firm Baker Tilly. “The credit crunch will push more people into bankruptcy, and these figures are just the tip of the iceberg. For every one that declares, there's a case that's as bad where the person is dealing by other means.''

British consumers have racked up record debt of 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.8 trillion) buying homes whose values had the first annual decline since 1996 last month, according to a report by HBOS Plc today. Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower this week called for “aggressive'' action by his colleagues to prevent the U.K. from falling into a recession.

Britain's economic growth slowed to 0.4 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in two years, the statistics office said last month. The economy will expand the least this year since the country last emerged from the recession in 1992, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Falling House Prices

House prices fell on an annual basis for the first time since 1996, HBOS, the country's biggest mortgage lender, said today. That makes it harder for consumers to borrow more against the value of their homes.

HBOS, facing rising defaults, said April 29 it will sell 4 billion pounds of shares to bolster capital depleted by asset writedowns and the deteriorating housing market.

“As the tightening of credit occurs, people can't remortgage because either there's not enough equity or banks are unwilling to lend,'' said Baker Tilly's Maund cash advances. “People are looking for protection.''

The Bank of England's three rate cuts since December have yet to be passed on to consumers as banks hoard capital, lifting the rates they charge each other to borrow. Mortgage lenders approved the fewest new loans in March since at least 1999.

“The credit crunch is starting to hit and hit hard,'' Blanchflower said April 30. “There is a tail of households who appear vulnerable to a tightening of credit conditions.''

The central bank's next meeting is May 8. It will publish new forecasts for growth and inflation a week later.

Annual Decline

Today's data still showed that insolvencies fell from a year earlier. They reached 29,116 in the first quarter of 2007, driven by an increase in so-called individual voluntary arrangements, marketed as an alternative to full bankruptcy, which often allow borrowers to restructure their debt, writing off most of it and still keep their home.

The annual decline was a “temporary blip'' as banks made it harder to get IVAs over the course of last year, said John Tribe, a lecturer in debt restructuring at Kingston University in London who has done research for the government.

“Next year, we could see new ways to deal with consumer insolvency,'' said Tribe. “Alternative remedies will be looked upon more favorably by debtors because of the lack of stigma.''

Tribe also oversees the Muir Hunter Museum of Bankruptcy, which boasts a 17th-century pillory to which debtors' ears were nailed until they revealed the location of their assets.

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Paulson Says U.S. Credit-Market Crisis Is `Closer to the End

Thursday, 01. May 2008 von Superman

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the credit crisis, now in its ninth month, probably is more than half over, and retained his forecast for the U.S. economy to keep growing.

“We are closer to the end of this problem than we are to the beginning,'' Paulson said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday in Washington. Even with “headwinds and despite some of the things that we're going through, this economy is still growing, albeit modestly,'' he said.

Paulson, a former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., joins the heads of Wall Street firms including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Lehman Brothers Inc. in viewing the credit turmoil as nearer an end. He also said he's focusing on existing efforts to address the housing slump, playing down a proposal for the department to use government funds.

The Treasury chief said a government report yesterday showing the economy grew 0.6 percent in the first three months of the year hadn't altered his assessment.

The figures on U.S. gross domestic product indicated that only an increase in stockpiles of unsold goods prevented a contraction last quarter.

“There inevitably will be some more bumps in the road before we get through this'' credit turmoil, Paulson said. He conceded that “we're in a tough quarter right now.''

Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said April 22 that the credit-market contraction is abating, echoing remarks by Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan, who said April 16 that the credit-market freeze is more than half over. Richard Fuld, CEO of Lehman, Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Morgan Stanley CEO John Mack offered similar assessments.

Stocks Recover

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has increased 7.6 percent since the Fed and the Treasury helped arrange the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. March 16 to prevent the firm from filing for bankruptcy.

Paulson also said the Bush administration's policies of encouraging voluntary loan renegotiations for struggling homeowners and tougher oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac remain his focus in addressing the housing recession.

Federal Deposit Insurance Committee Chairman Sheila Bair yesterday said Congress should authorize the Treasury to make home loans to help pay down as much as 20 percent of the principal on mortgages quick payday loans.

Paulson said he will “look carefully'' at the FDIC plan, while emphasizing his confidence in the Hope Now Alliance of lenders spearheading a private effort to modify home loans.

`Hope Now' Effort

“Our priority is doing the things we're already doing administratively, doing the things we're already doing working with the private sector,'' he said. “That's where we are, that hasn't changed, despite my high regard for Sheila.''

Under the FDIC plan, borrowers would be responsible for paying back the loan and the restructured mortgage. Participation would be restricted to Americans in owner-occupied homes with mortgages obtained between January 2003 and June 2007 whose monthly payments exceed 40 percent of household income.

Hours before Paulson's comments, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent, its seventh reduction since September. The Fed yesterday said the “substantial'' amount of easing would help foster growth.

In the interview, Paulson said he has “great confidence'' in the Fed, declining to comment specifically on the rate decision. He did indicate that the central bank's initiative to lend directly to primary bond dealers had eased some concern in financial markets.

Recession Concern

Asked whether the economy will fall into recession, Paulson said he didn't want to “enter into a technical debate'' about the term.

“The American people know that they're facing some significant headwinds: the price of oil, what it takes to put gas in their car today, the food prices — housing, the biggest risk to the downside,'' he said.

Paulson also reiterated his support for a strong U.S. currency.

“I'm a strong dollar man, we have a strong dollar policy,'' he said. “Our long-term economic fundamentals compare very favorably when I look around the world, and I think they're going to be reflected in the value of our currency.''

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